STEP 1 / 14

研究問題與假設

把模糊的興趣磨成可被檢驗的好問題——這是論文一切結構的根基。

Sharpen vague interests into a testable question — the foundation everything else in the paper rests on.

為什麼一切從「好問題」開始?

論文寫不好,多數情況不是寫作技巧的問題,而是研究問題本身就含糊。一個含糊的問題會讓緒論說不出 gap、方法選不對工具、結果不知道該回答什麼、討論變成感想文。

好的研究問題具備三個特徵:可被檢驗 (testable)有意義 (significant)可行 (feasible)。三者缺一,論文都會出問題。

Most weak papers don't fail because of writing — they fail because the research question itself was vague. A vague question means the introduction has no clear gap, the methods don't fit, the results have nothing specific to answer, and the discussion becomes commentary.

A good research question is testable, significant, and feasible. Lacking any one of these breaks the paper.

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核心原則:能在一個句子裡寫完、且能用「是 / 否 / 多少」回答的研究問題,才是寫得出論文的問題。寫不出來,多半是還沒想清楚。 Core principle: A research question you can write in one sentence and answer with "yes / no / how much" is one you can actually write a paper about. If you can't write it cleanly, you haven't thought it through.

一、PICO:把問題結構化

PICO 是循證醫學裡用來把問題結構化的工具,但它對任何「比較」型的生醫研究都適用。也常擴充為 PICOS(加 Study design)或 PICOTS(加 Time、Setting)。

PICO originated in evidence-based medicine for structuring questions, but it works for any comparative biomedical study. It often extends to PICOS (+ Study design) or PICOTS (+ Time, Setting).

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P — Population / Problem

研究對象是誰?年齡、性別、診斷、細胞型別、物種…越具體越好。
❌「癌症病人」
✅「III–IV 期非小細胞肺癌、未接受過免疫治療的成人病人」

Who are your subjects? Age, sex, diagnosis, cell type, species — the more specific, the better.
❌ "cancer patients"
✅ "treatment-naïve adults with stage III–IV non-small-cell lung cancer"

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I — Intervention / Exposure

你「介入」或「觀察」的因子是什麼?藥物、治療、暴露、基因敲除、scRNA-seq 處理流程…
❌「免疫治療」
✅「Pembrolizumab 200 mg 每 3 週一次,共 4 週期」

The factor you intervene with or observe — drug, treatment, exposure, gene knockout, scRNA-seq pipeline.
❌ "immunotherapy"
✅ "Pembrolizumab 200 mg every 3 weeks for 4 cycles"

⚖️

C — Comparator

你拿來比較的對照組是什麼?安慰劑、標準療法、wild-type、健康對照…
❌「沒有比較」
✅「化療 (carboplatin + paclitaxel) 標準療法」

What you compare against — placebo, standard care, wild-type, healthy controls.
❌ "no comparison"
✅ "standard chemotherapy (carboplatin + paclitaxel)"

🎯

O — Outcome

你想測量什麼結果?必須事先定義並可量化
❌「病人狀況改善」
✅「24 個月 progression-free survival (PFS) 比例」

What outcome you measure — must be pre-specified and quantifiable.
❌ "patient improvement"
✅ "24-month progression-free survival (PFS) rate"

⚠️
生資/Omics 研究的 PICO 變體:P=細胞群/樣本群、I=處理或基因擾動、C=對照樣本或 baseline、O=可量化讀出 (差異基因數、UMAP 距離、AUC)。例:「在 PBMC 中,IFN-γ 刺激相對於未刺激對照,會引起多少 ISG (interferon-stimulated genes) 的差異表達?」
PICO for omics studies: P = cell/sample population, I = perturbation, C = control/baseline, O = quantifiable readout (#DEGs, UMAP distance, AUC). E.g.: "In PBMCs, how many ISGs are differentially expressed under IFN-γ stimulation vs unstimulated control?"

二、FINER:你的問題值得做嗎?

PICO 幫你把問題寫清楚;FINER 幫你判斷該不該做這個問題。Hulley 等人在《Designing Clinical Research》中提出此 5 項判準。

PICO clarifies the question; FINER tells you whether it's worth doing. Hulley et al. (Designing Clinical Research) proposed these 5 criteria.

FINER自問紅燈
Feasible 樣本量、預算、時間、技術都到位嗎?Sample size, budget, time, expertise — all available? 需要 1000 例稀有疾病樣本,但你只有 50 例Needs 1000 rare-disease samples; you have 50
Interesting 研究者、領域、社會關心嗎?Do you, the field, and society care? 「我有空所以做這個」"I'm doing this because I have free time"
Novel 能在既有文獻上加些什麼?確認、推翻、延伸?Does it add to existing literature — confirm, refute, extend? 主題已有 3 篇 Cell 論文、結論一致Topic has 3 Cell papers with the same conclusion already
Ethical 能通過 IRB / IACUC?符合 Helsinki / Belmont?Will it pass IRB / IACUC? Follow Helsinki / Belmont? 無法獲得受試者知情同意Cannot obtain informed consent
Relevant 能影響臨床實踐、政策、後續研究?Will it affect clinical practice, policy, or follow-up research? 「結果不會改變任何決策」"The result wouldn't change any decision"

三、Aim / Objective / Hypothesis

三者經常被混用,導致緒論最後一段交代不清。記住層級:Aim(最廣)→ Objective(具體可達成步驟)→ Hypothesis(可被否證的預測)

These three are often muddled, leaving the last paragraph of the introduction unclear. Hierarchy: Aim (broadest) → Objective (concrete steps) → Hypothesis (falsifiable prediction).

Aim (目標)Objective (細目)Hypothesis (假設)
性質 寬泛意圖Broad intent 具體可量化步驟Concrete measurable steps 可被否證的預測Falsifiable prediction
動詞 investigate / explore / understand quantify / compare / identify will / increases / decreases
了解 IFN-γ 對 PBMC 的免疫調控Understand IFN-γ immune regulation in PBMCs (1) 量化 ISG 表達;(2) 鑑定上調超過 2× 的轉錄因子(1) Quantify ISG expression; (2) identify TFs upregulated >2× IFN-γ 處理會使 ISG 表達在 24 小時內顯著上升 (≥4×, p<0.05)IFN-γ will significantly upregulate ISG expression within 24 h (≥4×, p<0.05)
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探索性研究怎麼辦?不是每篇論文都要有 hypothesis。Discovery / hypothesis-generating 研究可以只列 aim 與 objectives,但要明確說「This is a hypothesis-generating study」,不要假裝你有先驗假設然後再 cherry-pick 結果。 What about exploratory work? Not every paper needs a hypothesis. Discovery / hypothesis-generating studies can list only aim and objectives — just declare "This is a hypothesis-generating study" upfront. Don't pretend you had a prior hypothesis then cherry-pick.

四、好壞研究問題對照

模糊版

「我想研究腸道菌與肥胖的關係。」

"I want to study the relationship between gut microbiota and obesity."

可檢驗版

「在 18–45 歲的台灣成人中 (P),Akkermansia muciniphila 相對豐度 (I) 與身體質量指數 (BMI) (O) 是否呈負相關?並比較體重正常 (BMI 18.5–24) 與肥胖 (BMI ≥27) 兩組 (C)。」

"In Taiwanese adults aged 18–45 (P), is relative Akkermansia muciniphila abundance (I) negatively correlated with body mass index (O), comparing normal-weight (BMI 18.5–24) and obese (BMI ≥27) groups (C)?"

無法檢驗

「Single-cell 技術在癌症研究中很重要。」
(這是觀點,不是問題。沒有變數、沒有對照、無法用數據回答。)

"Single-cell technology is important in cancer research."
(This is an opinion, not a question. No variables, no comparison, no data can answer it.)

可量化

「相較於 bulk RNA-seq,scRNA-seq (10x v3) 是否能在三陰性乳癌樣本中多偵測出至少 30% 的稀有 (<1%) 細胞亞群?」

"Does scRNA-seq (10x v3) detect at least 30% more rare (<1%) cell subpopulations than bulk RNA-seq in triple-negative breast cancer samples?"

五、研究問題定型決策樹

🌳 一週內鎖定研究問題的流程

Q1:
能寫成一句話的可量化問題嗎?→ 否 → 回去做 PICO,先把 P/I/C/O 一個個寫具體。
Q2:
過去 5 年內有相同問題的論文嗎?→ 是 → 找他們的 limitation 段落、或在不同 population / setting / outcome 重做(仍可投較低 IF 期刊或重複性研究)。
Q3:
樣本/數據可拿到嗎?→ 否 → 改做 secondary analysis(GEO、TCGA、UK Biobank、GTEx)或 systematic review / meta-analysis。
Q4:
結果有任何「臨床/生物學/方法學」實質意義嗎?→ 否 → 重新換問題。
Q5:
找 3 位同領域同事可以 30 秒內聽懂嗎?→ 否 → 表達還沒成熟,繼續打磨。
Q1:
Can you write it as one quantifiable sentence? → No → Go back to PICO; specify each P/I/C/O.
Q2:
Has the same question been answered in the last 5 years? → Yes → Mine their limitations section, or replicate in a different population / setting / outcome (still publishable in mid-IF journals or replication studies).
Q3:
Can you get the samples/data? → No → Switch to secondary analysis (GEO, TCGA, UK Biobank, GTEx) or systematic review / meta-analysis.
Q4:
Will the result have any real clinical / biological / methodological meaning? → No → Change the question.
Q5:
Can 3 colleagues understand it in 30 seconds? → No → Keep refining.

六、可直接套用的問題與假設範本

# 比較型 / Comparative
In [POPULATION], does [INTERVENTION] compared with [COMPARATOR]
result in [OUTCOME] over [TIMEFRAME]?

# 關聯型 / Associative
Among [POPULATION], is [EXPOSURE] associated with
[OUTCOME], after adjusting for [CONFOUNDERS]?

# 預測型 / Prognostic
In [POPULATION], can [BIOMARKER / MODEL] predict
[OUTCOME] with AUC > 0.75 in an external validation cohort?

# 方法學 / Methodological
Compared with [CURRENT METHOD], does [NEW METHOD]
improve [METRIC] by at least [THRESHOLD] on [BENCHMARK]?
# 方向性假設 / Directional
H1: [Variable A] will increase / decrease [Variable B]
    by at least [effect size] in [population].

# 非方向性假設 / Non-directional
H1: There is a significant difference in [outcome]
    between [group 1] and [group 2].

# 虛無假設 / Null
H0: There is no difference in [outcome]
    between [group 1] and [group 2].
# Aim (one sentence, broad)
The aim of this study is to [verb: investigate / characterize / compare]
[topic] in [population/system].

# Objectives (numbered, measurable)
Objective 1: To [verb: quantify / identify / compare] [X]
             using [method].
Objective 2: To [verb] [Y] using [method].
Objective 3: To [verb] [Z] using [method].
千萬別寫的句型:「The purpose of this study is to study…」「This thesis aims to discuss…」——動詞太弱、沒有方向。改用 quantify、compare、test、identify、characterize、predict 等具體動詞。 Avoid these: "The purpose of this study is to study…" "This thesis aims to discuss…" — verbs are weak and directionless. Use quantify, compare, test, identify, characterize, predict instead.

📝 自我檢測

1. 以下哪個研究問題最符合 PICO 結構,且能寫成可檢驗的論文?

1. Which research question best matches the PICO structure and is testable?

A. 我想了解失智症的成因A. I want to understand the causes of dementia
B. 益生菌對健康有幫助嗎?B. Are probiotics good for health?
C. 在 65 歲以上輕度認知障礙者中,每日 1 g omega-3 補充 6 個月後,與安慰劑相比,MMSE 分數變化是否有差異?C. In adults >65 with mild cognitive impairment, does 1 g/day omega-3 for 6 months change MMSE score compared with placebo?
D. 探討單細胞定序的應用D. Explore applications of single-cell sequencing

2. FINER 五個準則中,「N (Novel)」的合理判斷是?

2. Among the FINER criteria, the correct interpretation of "N (Novel)" is?

A. 必須是從未做過的研究A. The study must never have been done
B. 只要使用最新技術即算 novelB. Using the newest technology counts as novel
C. 只要不抄襲就算 novelC. Anything that isn't plagiarism is novel
D. 能在既有文獻上「確認、推翻、或延伸」即算 novelD. "Confirming, refuting, or extending" existing literature all count as novel

3. 關於 Aim、Objective、Hypothesis 的區辨,下列何者最正確?

3. Which best describes the distinction between Aim, Objective, and Hypothesis?

A. 三者意思相同,可互換使用A. They mean the same and are interchangeable
B. Aim 最寬泛、Objective 是具體可達成步驟、Hypothesis 是可被否證的預測B. Aim is broadest, Objectives are concrete steps, Hypothesis is a falsifiable prediction
C. 探索性研究必須有 hypothesisC. Exploratory studies must have a hypothesis
D. Hypothesis 比 Aim 更寬泛D. Hypothesis is broader than Aim